ETH > $4k in May?88¢+2.4%
Fed cuts rates in June?32¢-1.1%
SpaceX Mars landing '29?14¢+0.8%
US Election '24 Winner?52¢0.0%
AI passes Turing test '25?76¢+4.2%
BTC > $100k in 2024?64¢-0.5%
Apple AR glasses '25?41¢+1.9%
ETH > $4k in May?88¢+2.4%
Fed cuts rates in June?32¢-1.1%
SpaceX Mars landing '29?14¢+0.8%
US Election '24 Winner?52¢0.0%
AI passes Turing test '25?76¢+4.2%
BTC > $100k in 2024?64¢-0.5%
Apple AR glasses '25?41¢+1.9%
Probable
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ABOUT

The price of a belief should be a public good

Markets are the most reliable forecasting instruments available — but operating one carries significant regulatory, financial, and engineering complexity. Probable exists to make launching a prediction market as straightforward as accepting a card payment.

Our rails settle prediction market volumes directly on Polygon mainnet — utilizing non-custodial wallet infrastructure, automated token allowances, and regulatory-compliant rails.

100%
non-custodial wallets
$0
gas fees for end users
Polygon
native mainnet settlement
Sub-sec
payout execution speed

How we work

01
The price is the product
Every feature exists to make prediction market prices more accurate, more liquid, and more available.
02
Compliance is a feature
We treat regulation as a design constraint, not an obstacle. Shield exists so our customers sleep.
03
Reliability is the brand
Settlement infrastructure earns trust in years and loses it in seconds. We engineer for the worst day, not the demo.

Careers

We are a lean, remote-first team building the next generation of settlement and compliance infrastructure for prediction markets. We write TypeScript, Go, Solidity, and manage RPC nodes.

We hire opportunistically for exceptional engineers and designers who enjoy working at the intersection of DeFi protocols and API infrastructure.

Get in touch →