ETH > $4k in May?88¢+2.4%

Fed cuts rates in June?32¢-1.1%

SpaceX Mars landing '29?14¢+0.8%

US Election '24 Winner?52¢0.0%

AI passes Turing test '25?76¢+4.2%

BTC > $100k in 2024?64¢-0.5%

Apple AR glasses '25?41¢+1.9%

ETH > $4k in May?88¢+2.4%

Fed cuts rates in June?32¢-1.1%

SpaceX Mars landing '29?14¢+0.8%

US Election '24 Winner?52¢0.0%

AI passes Turing test '25?76¢+4.2%

BTC > $100k in 2024?64¢-0.5%

Apple AR glasses '25?41¢+1.9%

Probable

Home Product Markets Watchlist Docs Dashboard About

PRODUCT

One API, three primitives

Compose Rails, Embeds, and Shield into any prediction-market experience.

RAILS

Instant Fiat & Crypto Settlement

Eliminate gas fees and crypto complexities. Fund accounts directly via standard card checkout or USDC transfers, and resolve payouts instantly.

✓ERC-4337 smart wallets generated under the hood

✓Gas sponsored via paymasters on Polygon chain

✓Direct fiat deposits with credit card or Apple Pay

const payout = await probable.rails.payout({
  userId: "user_981a",
  amount: 250.00,
  asset: "USDC"
});

EMBEDS

Beautiful, Reactive Market Embeds

Drop responsive prediction cards directly into your news feeds or trading interfaces. Custom stylesheet overrides let you align it with your brand identity.

✓One line of JS to import and render widgets

✓Auto-updating WebSockets quote streams

✓Zero React wrapper boilerplate required

<probable-embed
  market-id="mkt_btc_150k"
  theme="dark"
  accent="#8200FF"
/>

SHIELD

Institutional Fraud & Wash Monitoring

Integrate compliance safely. Our monitoring suite blocks circular trading and coordinates user limits based on geographic rules automatically.

✓Automated wash trading detection models

✓OFAC sanction checks and KYC validation flow

✓Geographic gating on order execution

const check = await probable.shield.check({
  userId: "user_981a",
  action: "TRADE_EXECUTE"
});
// -> status: ALLOWED

USE CASES

Who builds on Probable

FINTECH

Asset Hedging

Let users purchase options or hedge holdings against real-world event occurrences directly in your dashboard.

MEDIA

Stake Polls

Turn static readership polls into active financial predictions. Boost reader interaction by 4.2x.

GAMING

Interactive Esports

Allow viewers to forecast game outcomes and player statistics live with gasless sub-second payouts.

PRICING

Pay per settled dollar

No monthly fees. No minimums. Volume discounts built in.

Sandbox

Build prototypes, evaluate endpoints, and simulate real-time settlement.

0%fees

✓100 transactions/mo

✓API key access

✓Community support